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Prediction for CME (2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-15T04:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35681/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2024-12-15T04:23Z, as well as faintly in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in later frames. This CME overlaps with previous CME: 2024-12-15T01:25Z, making the front difficult to track in SOHO LASCO. The source of this event appears to be an area of dimming centered near AR 3924 (S19W18) as seen GOES SUVI 195. | ARRIVAL NOTE: Arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 6nT to 20nT, reaching a peak of approx. 31nT at 2024-12-17T08:39Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 390 km/s to sustained peak speeds of approx. 670 km/s, an increase in density, and an increase in temperature. The temperature decreased around 2024-12-17T09:45Z. There was a possible additional but weak arrival at approx. 2024-12-17T18:40Z, characterized by another increase in B-total from 11nT back up to a sustained 14nT, accompanied by another increase in temperature, decrease in density, and increase of solar wind speed from ~510 km/s to above 600 km/s, along with a period of predominantly negative Bz which reached a lowest negative value of -9nT at 2024-12-17T23:16Z. The arrival signature observed at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z is suspected to be the combined arrival of CME 2024-12-15T01:25Z and CME 2024-12-15T04:23Z, along with additional influence from a coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-17T04:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-18T19:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-12-15T10:43Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 481
Longitude (deg): 21W
Latitude (deg): 31S
Half-angular width (deg): 43

Notes: Low confidence in fit.
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 23.75 hour(s)
Difference: -38.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-12-16T04:55Z

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